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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17?

Volume:
$342,845

above $4252

 - Kalshi

above $4252 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $4252

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,512
N/A
N/A
$9,848
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4242

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,674
N/A
N/A
$6,450
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4222

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,642
N/A
N/A
$2,803
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4212

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,519
N/A
N/A
$5,434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4232

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,465
N/A
N/A
$2,944
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4202

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,007
N/A
N/A
$1,837
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4192

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,626
N/A
N/A
$2,520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4162

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,617
N/A
N/A
$1,617
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4142

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4152

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$661
N/A
N/A
$661
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4182

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$594
N/A
N/A
$594
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4172

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4262

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,559
N/A
N/A
$9,125
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4292

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,441
N/A
N/A
$12,941
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4312

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,755
N/A
N/A
$18,275
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4302

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,256
N/A
N/A
$13,818
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4272

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,395
N/A
N/A
$8,601
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4322

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,656
N/A
N/A
$9,543
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4332

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,482
N/A
N/A
$8,137
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4282

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,888
N/A
N/A
$5,276
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4352

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,522
N/A
N/A
$3,995
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4342

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,317
N/A
N/A
$4,782
Settled
No
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4362

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,302
N/A
N/A
$2,560
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4372

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,875
N/A
N/A
$2,416
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the gold price (XAUUSD) closes higher or lower on June 17, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts, each tied to a specific price threshold at 5:00 PM EDT, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring June 17's close against the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different outcomes: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT, while Polymarket uses relative price comparison (June 17 close vs. prior trading day close). The same gold price can satisfy Kalshi conditions while failing Polymarket conditions, or vice versa.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution logic. Kalshi contracts are threshold-based; Polymarket is momentum-based. Prior trading day close is critical for Polymarket resolution but irrelevant for Kalshi. Confirm the prior day's close before Polymarket settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary contracts, each resolving YES if 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT on June 17, 2026 exceeds a specific price threshold (4142 to 4532 USD/t.oz). All 40 contracts reference the same single data point and timestamp. Resolution is purely absolute: price above threshold = YES, price at or below threshold = NO.
  • Polymarket: Single comparative market resolving UP if June 17 close (4:59 PM ET Pyth candle, or last valid price before 4:59 PM ET, or CME COMEX close if Pyth unavailable) is higher than the most recent prior trading day close. Resolves DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Resolution is relative, not absolute.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, with prices evaluated at thresholds ranging from $4,142 to $4,532 USD per troy ounce in $10 increments. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.