TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15?
kalshi
polymarket
limitless

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15?

Volume:
$289,162

above $4307

 - Kalshi

above $4307 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $4307

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31,912
N/A
N/A
$20,287
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4217

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,242
N/A
N/A
$4,648
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4277

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,831
N/A
N/A
$7,653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4297

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,188
N/A
N/A
$3,961
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4227

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,884
N/A
N/A
$1,478
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4207

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,521
N/A
N/A
$2,818
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4267

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,011
N/A
N/A
$2,565
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4287

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,874
N/A
N/A
$1,588
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4197

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,809
N/A
N/A
$1,858
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4237

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,774
N/A
N/A
$1,142
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4157

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,165
N/A
N/A
$1,866
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4247

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,127
N/A
N/A
$680
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4187

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,040
N/A
N/A
$1,619
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4177

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,907
N/A
N/A
$1,596
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4167

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,897
N/A
N/A
$1,627
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4147

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
$1,494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4137

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,117
N/A
N/A
$1,107
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4127

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,109
N/A
N/A
$1,099
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4027

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,080
N/A
N/A
$1,078
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4017

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$887
N/A
N/A
$846
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4257

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
$338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4107

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$818
N/A
N/A
$817
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4097

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$760
N/A
N/A
$759
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4067

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$530
N/A
N/A
$524
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This event group tracks whether the price of Gold (XAUUSD) moves up or down on June 15, 2026. Three platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different resolution methodologies: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a specific timestamp, Polymarket compares June 15's close to the prior trading day's close, and Limitless compares weekly opens using a different asset (PAXG) and different timestamps.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms use mutually incompatible resolution methodologies: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at 5:00 PM EDT, Polymarket compares day-over-day closes using Pyth XAUUSD, and Limitless compares weekly opens using PAXG/USD at different UTC timestamps. The underlying assets, timestamps, and comparison logic are all different, making unified resolution impossible.Hero tip: Treat these as three separate markets. Kalshi's 40 conditions all resolve to Yes if price exceeds 4017—there is no explicit No outcome defined. Polymarket's Up/Down depends on prior trading day comparison. Limitless uses a tokenized gold product (PAXG) and weekly comparison, not spot XAUUSD. Price movements that satisfy one platform's criteria may not satisfy another's. Verify your position's specific platform resolution terms before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM EDT June 15, 2026 exceeds any of 40 price thresholds (4017 to 4407 USD/t.oz). All 40 conditions are logically redundant—if price > 4017, all higher thresholds are satisfied. No explicit No condition is defined. Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4017 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves Up if June 15, 2026 close > prior trading day close (typically June 13). Uses Pyth 4:59 PM ET candle close as official source, with CME COMEX GC futures fallback. Resolves 50-50 if equal, no trade, or Pyth outage. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Limitless: Resolves Up if PAXG/USD open at 03:59 UTC June 15, 2026 > PAXG/USD open at 04:00 UTC June 8, 2026. Uses tokenized gold (PAXG), not spot XAUUSD. Baseline June 8 open was 4308.50025550. Different asset class and timestamp than competitors. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Open price for Pyth PAXG/USD on June 15, 2026, at 03:59 UTC is strictly higher than the Open price for Pyth PAXG/USD on June 8, 2026, at 04:00 UTC.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 15, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 15, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for gold on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $4,017 to $4,407 USD per troy ounce, each in $10 increments. Each threshold represents a separate binary outcome: if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. The close price for any 1-minute candlestick represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Open price for Pyth PAXG/USD on June 15, 2026, at 03:59 UTC is strictly higher than the Open price for Pyth PAXG/USD on June 8, 2026, at 04:00 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Open price for Pyth PAXG/USD captured on June 8, 2026, at 04:00 UTC was $4,308.50025550. Resolution source: Pyth PAXG/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For each relevant timestamp, the Open price refers to the "Open" value of the corresponding 1-minute Pyth candle. If Pyth is briefly missing data at exactly 03:59 UTC on June 15, 2026, the next available Pyth price within 5 seconds will be used for the affected timestamp. In the rare event of a longer Pyth outage, the market will be resolved manually by the Limitless team using the closest available Pyth price.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets distill thousands of individual bets into a single probability, often outperforming consensus analyst calls because traders face direct financial consequences for accuracy. Unlike surveys or published price targets, this market prices in real-time reactions to Fed policy, inflation data, and geopolitical risk—all major gold drivers. Analysts may lag in incorporating overnight developments or shifting macro sentiment. Comparing the odds here to major investment bank forecasts reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish than the Street consensus. This divergence often signals where surprises may hide.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and liquidity pools, leading to price discovery gaps. Polymarket uses a binary contract tied to a precise price level, while Kalshi frames the outcome as directional movement, creating subtle interpretation differences. Regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases also vary—Polymarket draws retail and institutional US traders, while Kalshi reaches a global audience. These structural differences mean one venue may price in tail risks or overnight volatility that the other hasn't fully reflected. Arbitrage-minded traders exploit these spreads, but gaps can persist if liquidity is thin on either side.

US inflation reports, Federal Reserve communications, and Treasury yield shifts are primary catalysts—gold typically rallies when real rates fall or recession fears rise. Geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and currency strength also drive short-term swings. Unexpected economic data, earnings misses, or hawkish Fed commentary can trigger sharp reversals. Technical levels and options expiry flows may amplify intraday volatility. Traders should watch the dollar index closely, since gold is priced in USD and inverse correlations are tight. Any surprise policy announcement or market stress event in the final days could shift odds sharply.