This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the gold price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether gold will move up or down on June 12. The interface displays the current probability assigned by traders to each outcome, along with trading activity and liquidity metrics. This dashboard lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new information emerges, giving you a live view of what participants collectively expect from gold's intraday performance on that specific date.

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders with financial skin in the game, whereas analyst forecasts are typically point estimates or ranges published periodically. This market aggregates dispersed information and incentives across many participants, often capturing shifts faster than traditional analyst updates. Comparing the odds here to published commodity forecasts can reveal where professional expectations and market-based probabilities diverge, highlighting either emerging consensus or lingering uncertainty about gold's directional move.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the share price directly reflecting the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price continuously adjusts based on order flow and liquidity, so the odds you see represent the marginal trader's belief at that moment. Higher prices indicate stronger conviction that gold will move in that direction; lower prices suggest skepticism. This mechanism ensures prices stay responsive to breaking news and changing market conditions.

This market resolves around Jun 12, 2026, after which the outcome is confirmed once gold's price movement on June 12 is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning outcome is determined by whether the closing price of gold on that date is higher or lower than the opening price. Once the event is settled and verified, traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data releases, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements, all of which historically influence gold prices. Economic reports on employment, GDP, or interest rate expectations can shift trader conviction about gold's near-term direction. Additionally, unexpected market volatility, central bank statements from other major economies, or shifts in real yields can trigger rapid repricing. Traders monitor these signals closely, so any material development typically moves odds quickly before June 12.

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