TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 1, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus on gold's direction by June 1, often incorporating faster-moving macroeconomic signals than traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street commodity strategists typically publish monthly or quarterly outlooks based on Fed policy, inflation data, and USD strength, prediction markets update continuously as new information arrives. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst sentiment can reveal whether traders are pricing in more hawkish or dovish expectations than the consensus. Divergences often highlight emerging catalysts that formal research has not yet fully priced in.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy and sell shares representing either an up move or a down move in gold by Jun 1, 2026. The price of each outcome share reflects the market's probability estimate, with shares trading between 0 and 1 cent. Liquidity pools and order books on Polymarket determine the spread and slippage; deeper liquidity typically means tighter pricing. Traders profit by correctly predicting the direction, with payouts determined by the final resolution price of XAUUSD at market close on the specified date.
The Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1 market resolves at Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing the XAUUSD closing price on that date to the opening price or a specified reference level, establishing whether gold moved up or down over the period. The exact resolution criteria and data source are documented in the market terms on Polymarket. Once the market closes, the outcome is finalized and shares are settled according to the result.
Gold prices are highly sensitive to US monetary policy expectations, inflation data, and USD strength. Major catalysts before Jun 1, 2026 include Federal Reserve communications, CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and geopolitical tensions. Real interest rates—the yield on Treasury securities minus inflation expectations—are a primary driver; rising rates typically pressure gold, while falling rates support it. Central bank actions globally, especially ECB or Bank of England decisions, can shift currency flows and precious metals demand. Market risk sentiment also matters; flight-to-safety flows during equity selloffs often boost gold, while risk-on rallies can weigh on prices.