TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 6?
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 6?

Volume:
$13,420

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 6?

 - Polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 6? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 6?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 6, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 6, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 6, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 6, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the gold price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether gold will move up or down on July 6. The interface displays the current probability assigned by traders to each outcome, along with 24-hour volume metrics that reflect how actively participants are trading this market. This dashboard gives you a live snapshot of market sentiment around intraday gold price direction, updated continuously as new trades execute. You can monitor shifts in trader conviction and liquidity depth to gauge confidence levels across the prediction community.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives rather than opinion surveys. Traders in this market are financially motivated to price in all available information about gold's expected movement, whereas analysts may publish forecasts based on models or sentiment alone. When this market shows strong conviction toward one outcome, it typically signals that informed participants see asymmetric risk or opportunity. Comparing the odds here to published commodity analyst views can reveal where the market is pricing in factors analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares tied to each outcome—up or down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; if the up outcome is trading at a higher price, it signals stronger trader belief in an upward move. Liquidity pools and order books allow participants to enter or exit positions continuously, and the spread between bid and ask prices narrows as more capital flows into the market. This mechanism ensures prices adjust dynamically to new information and trading activity.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed based on verified gold price data from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether the spot price of gold closed higher or lower on that date compared to the opening level. Once the event is verifiable through established financial reporting, the market settles and winning positions are paid out automatically. Traders should monitor official gold price feeds and market announcements as the date approaches to stay informed on any potential delays or clarifications.

Major catalysts that could shift odds include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data releases, and geopolitical developments that typically drive safe-haven demand for gold. Currency movements—particularly US dollar strength or weakness—also exert significant pressure on gold prices intraday. Economic reports on employment, retail sales, or manufacturing can trigger sharp repricing if they surprise consensus expectations. Additionally, central bank statements from other major economies, real interest rate shifts, and unexpected market volatility spikes often prompt rapid trader repositioning in this market as participants reassess near-term directional risk.