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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 20?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 20?

Volume:
$178,786

above $3988

 - Kalshi

above $3988 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $3988

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,447
N/A
N/A
$10,702
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3998

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,445
N/A
N/A
$6,712
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3978

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,449
N/A
N/A
$7,686
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3948

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,746
N/A
N/A
$1,610
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3958

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,774
N/A
N/A
$1,188
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3878

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,200
N/A
N/A
$2,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3968

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,892
N/A
N/A
$1,261
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3888

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,490
N/A
N/A
$757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3938

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,208
N/A
N/A
$787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3918

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,114
N/A
N/A
$598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3898

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
$526
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3908

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$689
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3928

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$666
N/A
N/A
$517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3848

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$570
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3868

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
$312
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3858

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3808

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3838

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3798

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3818

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3828

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4018

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,019
N/A
N/A
$16,396
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4008

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,863
N/A
N/A
$15,905
Settled
No
kalshi

above $4028

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,363
N/A
N/A
$4,880
Settled
No
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 20?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the gold price (XAUUSD) closes higher or lower on July 20, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 binary markets at specific price thresholds (3798–4188 USD/t.oz), while Polymarket offers a single relative comparison market (Up vs Down versus the prior trading day's close).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds at a specific timestamp (5:00 PM EDT July 20), while Polymarket uses relative price comparison (July 20 close vs prior trading day close). These are distinct settlement values and will not always align.Hero tip: Understand your market type before trading. Kalshi markets are threshold bets; Polymarket is a directional bet. A gold price of 3850 USD/t.oz on July 20 at 5:00 PM resolves YES on Kalshi thresholds 1–6 but may resolve DOWN on Polymarket if the prior day closed higher. Hedge accordingly or choose the market matching your thesis.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary markets, each with a fixed absolute price threshold. Resolves YES if the 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT on July 20, 2026 exceeds the stated USD/t.oz level. Thresholds range from 3798 to 4188 in 10 USD/t.oz increments. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single relative comparison market. Resolves UP if July 20 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle at 4:59 PM ET (or last valid price if unavailable; falls back to CME COMEX GC futures if Pyth fails). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 20, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 20, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for gold on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $3,798 to $4,188 USD per troy ounce, each in $10 increments. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

The gold price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether gold will move up or down by July 20. This dashboard consolidates real-time odds from both venues, letting you compare how each platform's community is pricing directional exposure to the precious metal. Traders on each platform independently assess technical levels, macroeconomic drivers, and geopolitical risk to set their odds. The combined view reveals consensus strength and identifies where the two communities diverge, giving you a fuller picture of market sentiment around gold's near-term trajectory.

Prediction markets like those tracked here differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than individual opinions. Traders who get the call wrong lose capital, creating a financial incentive for accuracy that many analysts lack. This market's odds reflect live, crowdsourced conviction weighted by skin-in-the-game stakes. While sell-side research may offer deeper fundamental analysis, prediction markets often outperform on binary outcomes because they penalize overconfidence and reward calibration. Comparing both sources—market odds and analyst commentary—typically yields the most robust view of gold's likely direction.

Federal Reserve policy announcements and interest-rate expectations are primary drivers—higher rates typically weigh on gold, while rate cuts support it. Inflation data, dollar strength, and geopolitical tensions all influence precious-metal demand. Central bank gold purchases or sales, especially from major economies, can shift sentiment quickly. Economic recession fears tend to boost safe-haven demand for gold. Earnings reports from mining companies and shifts in real yields also move the needle. Tracking these catalysts helps you anticipate when this market's odds may shift and when entry or exit points become attractive.