TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
above $4106.99
- Kalshi
above $4106.99 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group compares gold (XAUUSD) price movement on July 10, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 binary contracts each tied to specific price thresholds at a fixed timestamp, while Polymarket offers a single relative comparison market measuring whether July 10's close exceeds the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different outcomes: Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds at a fixed timestamp (5:00 PM EDT), while Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day price direction (4:59 PM ET close vs prior trading day close). Timing also differs by one minute.Hero tip: These markets are not substitutes or hedges for each other. Kalshi contracts are directional bets on specific price levels; Polymarket is a pure relative momentum play. Confirm the prior trading day's closing price before Polymarket settlement. For Kalshi, ensure you understand which threshold tier(s) you are trading.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each tied to an absolute price threshold ranging from 3726.99 to 4506.99 USD/t.oz. Resolution occurs at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2026, using the 1-minute candlestick close. Each contract resolves independently: Yes if price exceeds threshold, No otherwise. Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary market comparing July 10, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close. Resolves Up if higher, Down if lower, or 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle close with fallback to last valid price or CME COMEX GC futures. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Kalshi
Settlement is determined by the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, measured in USD per troy ounce. The close price for a candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (for example, the candlestick timestamped 5:00 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the closing price exceeds that threshold. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms host the same event, but their user bases, fee structures, and liquidity pools differ. Kalshi and Polymarket attract traders with distinct risk appetites and information sets, so order flow can push prices apart temporarily. Platform-specific rules, withdrawal policies, and market-maker participation also influence pricing. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but during volatile periods—such as major economic announcements or geopolitical shocks—the two can diverge meaningfully. Monitoring both helps you identify mispricings and understand which platform's crowd is more confident.
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