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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$140,729

Above $4414

 - Kalshi

Above $4414 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4414

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,535
N/A
N/A
$6,920
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4374

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,064
N/A
N/A
$7,508
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4404

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,056
N/A
N/A
$3,430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4384

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,958
N/A
N/A
$4,509
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 17?

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4394

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,721
N/A
N/A
$3,227
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4364

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,414
N/A
N/A
$1,604
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4334

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,942
N/A
N/A
$1,634
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4354

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,619
N/A
N/A
$1,219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4344

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,529
N/A
N/A
$1,019
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4324

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,202
N/A
N/A
$1,029
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4314

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
$645
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4144

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$650
N/A
N/A
$650
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4304

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$598
N/A
N/A
$598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4234

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$543
N/A
N/A
$526
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4254

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4264

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4224

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
$272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4294

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
$263
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4284

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4154

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4274

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4244

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
$202
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4424

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,451
N/A
N/A
$8,403
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4444

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,757
N/A
N/A
$5,576
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the price of gold (XAUUSD) will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference point. The Kalshi markets resolve based on absolute price thresholds, while the Polymarket resolves based on comparison to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket uses relative price comparison, Kalshi uses absolute price thresholdsHero tip: Trade Polymarket for relative movement bets and Kalshi for absolute threshold outcomes. Watch for extreme volatility that could trigger both markets differently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if August 17 close > prior trading day close; "Down" if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth closing prices at 4:59 PM ET.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if 5:00 PM EDT close on August 17 is above any of 40 specified thresholds from 4144 to 4534 USD/t.oz.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4144 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4154 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4164 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4174 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4184 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4194 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4204 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4214 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4224 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4234 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4244 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4254 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4264 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4274 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4284 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4294 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4304 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4314 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4324 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4334 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4344 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4354 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4364 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4374 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4384 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4394 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4404 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4414 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4424 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4434 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4444 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4454 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4464 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4474 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4484 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4494 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4504 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4514 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4524 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4534 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.