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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$335,605

Above $4347

 - Kalshi

Above $4347 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4347

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,215
N/A
N/A
$13,965
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4337

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,215
N/A
N/A
$20,962
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4387

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,026
N/A
N/A
$14,757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4357

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,749
N/A
N/A
$8,325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4367

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,244
N/A
N/A
$7,556
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4377

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,918
N/A
N/A
$10,126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4327

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,341
N/A
N/A
$6,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4317

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,828
N/A
N/A
$6,180
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4287

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,978
N/A
N/A
$3,757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4297

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,189
N/A
N/A
$2,529
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4307

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,038
N/A
N/A
$2,129
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4277

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,490
N/A
N/A
$3,307
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,970
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4267

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,528
N/A
N/A
$1,774
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4197

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,172
N/A
N/A
$942
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4217

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4247

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,751
N/A
N/A
$1,250
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4227

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,728
N/A
N/A
$1,218
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4257

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,468
N/A
N/A
$713
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4237

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,350
N/A
N/A
$830
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4207

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,118
N/A
N/A
$704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4187

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$582
N/A
N/A
$334
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4177

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$419
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4127

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$390
N/A
N/A
$319
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4107

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$386
N/A
N/A
$366
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the price of gold (XAUUSD) will be higher or lower on August 10, 2026, compared to either a fixed threshold or the previous trading day's close, depending on the platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Value MismatchHero tip: Traders should be aware that these markets resolve differently — Kalshi uses a fixed threshold ladder while Polymarket uses a relative comparison to the prior day. Focus your trading strategy accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the close price of gold on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above one of 40 progressively higher thresholds (starting at 4107 USD/t.oz and increasing by 10 USD/t.oz each market).
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if the close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. Resolves to Down if lower. Resolves 50-50 if equal or no trading.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on August 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of the one-minute candlestick for gold at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price, and if the recorded close exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price represents the final trade price at the end of the minute preceding the specified timestamp — for example, the 4:59 PM candlestick's close determines the 5:00 PM value. If real-time data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent published price before the timestamp is used for resolution.