TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

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$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

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4,484

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by Oct 30?

Volume:
$2,128

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$2,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, providing insight into how actively this market is being traded. Currently, volume is $2,069 and total volume is $2,128.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term trajectory of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others anticipating a correction following recent gains. However, prediction market participants in this market offer a distinct perspective, reflecting a real-money consensus. This differs from traditional polls or expert opinions, as traders have a financial stake in accurately forecasting the outcome. It’s important to note that market odds are dynamic and can shift rapidly based on new information and trading activity.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively aggregating the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the probability that traders assign to each outcome, and this probability is constantly updated as new trades are executed. This creates a dynamic and efficient price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM Eastern Time on October 30th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Up’, while a price decrease will favor those who predicted ‘Down’. The exact price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could play a role. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-holding nations could also move this market substantially before Oct 30, 2026.