TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$809

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 8:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$254
$809
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T12:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 8:15AM and 8:30AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, providing insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $816, and the total market volume, which is $809. This information helps you understand the level of activity and interest in this particular market.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts provide price targets and directional predictions, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a single, real-time probability. Often, prediction markets can identify information not yet reflected in standard forecasts, potentially offering a more accurate view of likely outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are often point estimates, while this market expresses a range of probabilities.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, and changes in price signal shifts in sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likely gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15AM and 8:30AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 8:30AM ET than at 8:15AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could sway trader sentiment. Finally, major currency fluctuations, especially involving the US dollar, are likely to affect the gold price movement and, consequently, this market.