TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$824

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$824
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities, along with the total volume traded—currently $824—and the 24-hour volume, which is $820. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating. The dashboard also displays the implied probabilities derived from the trading activity, offering insights into what the crowd believes will happen with the gold price.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts vary widely and are often qualitative. However, prediction markets like this one often aggregate a diverse range of perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate signal than any single analyst’s opinion. It’s important to remember that prediction market odds reflect what traders are *willing to bet* on, which can differ from what analysts *predict* will happen. This market provides a real-time, incentivized forecast based on collective intelligence.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:30 AM ET and 6:45 AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 6:45 AM ET than at 6:30 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The change will be verified against credible public sources reporting the gold price at those times.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price movements. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite are other key signals to watch that could move this market.