TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5AM-5:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$164

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5AM-5:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $163. The total volume traded to date is $164. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing forecasts for gold prices, this market represents a probabilistic view based on traders’ willingness to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate events before they are widely reflected in analyst consensus, or to assign different probabilities to various outcomes than those suggested by conventional financial modeling.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the buy and sell prices indicates the level of uncertainty and the cost of trading in this market. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements that reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 AM and 5:15 AM ET on October 30th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The precise price source used for verification is publicly available on Predict.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations, currency fluctuations (particularly the US dollar), and major purchases or sales by central banks are all potential catalysts. Any news that alters the perceived risk appetite of investors could lead to substantial movement in this market.