TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$692

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$692
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $686, and the total market volume, which is $692. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued rise in gold prices due to global economic uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies between the two can highlight differing beliefs about the likelihood of various economic scenarios.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM Eastern Time on October 30th. If the price is higher at 6:00 AM than at 5:45 AM, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, could also drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, any significant shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence the market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investments could also play a role.