TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 30?

Volume:
$282

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$282
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $281. The total volume for this market is $282. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions on gold’s future performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. This difference can stem from the incentives at play – analysts may be influenced by firm positions or biases, whereas prediction market participants are directly incentivized to be accurate. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how crowd-sourced predictions diverge from expert opinions regarding the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These probabilities are constantly updated, reflecting the latest information and sentiment. The market efficiently incorporates new data as traders adjust their positions, aiming to profit from correctly predicting the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 PM and 4:15 PM ET on October 30th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘up’, while a price decrease will favor those who predicted ‘down’. The final price movement will be determined by publicly available financial data at the conclusion of the specified timeframe.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could shift market sentiment. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen circumstances related to these areas have the potential to cause substantial movement in this market.