TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$516

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$185
$516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $511, and the total volume traded to date, which is $516. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and sentiment surrounding the potential direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipating moves before they are widely recognized by conventional financial forecasts, or conversely, discounting predictions that appear overly optimistic or pessimistic.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the defined period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s aggregate expectation, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available. The spread between the buy and sell price indicates the cost of trading and the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM ET on October 30th. A positive change signifies an increase, while a negative change indicates a decrease. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency, determining whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is declared.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, major central bank announcements regarding interest rates or quantitative easing policies could impact the market. Any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or weakness will likely influence the price of gold, as they are inversely correlated.