TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 30?

Volume:
$103

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$643
$103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:45PM and 5:00PM ET on October 30. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $103, and total volume traded to date, which is $103. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur, offering a potentially valuable alternative indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price movements. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:45 PM ET and 5:00 PM ET on October 30. If the price is higher at 5:00 PM ET than at 4:45 PM ET, the “Gold Up” outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the “Gold Down” outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often drive gold price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, significant changes in the US dollar’s strength or movements in other commodity markets could influence trading activity. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could also move the market.