TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

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$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$361

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$292
$361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on October 30th. You'll find a price history chart displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $360. The total volume for this market is $361. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term projections based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very specific, short-term price movement. It’s common to see divergences, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders reacting to real-time information and anticipating immediate market reactions. This can provide a unique signal compared to the more static views offered by typical financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is reflected in the price of the 'Up' contracts, while the 'Down' contracts represent the probability of a price decrease.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 4:45AM ET than at 4:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to major gold-holding nations or significant changes in central bank policies could move this market. Traders will be closely watching these signals to adjust their positions and refine their predictions.