TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 30?

Volume:
$287

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $287, and the total volume traded to date, which is $287. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price leading up to the event.

Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individual traders. This can lead to divergences, especially when anticipating events influenced by unpredictable factors or ‘black swan’ events. Currently, it's important to note that the market’s collective wisdom may or may not align with prevailing expert opinions on gold’s short-term trajectory.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective intelligence of participants, dynamically adjusting as new information becomes available and sentiment shifts.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 3:45PM-4:00PM ET window on October 30th. Whether the price moves up or down will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the final result on Predict shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive price movements. Even unexpected news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in investor risk appetite could cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market.