TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on October 30. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $2, and the 24-hour volume, which is $2. This provides a snapshot of trader activity and sentiment surrounding the potential movement of the gold price during the specified timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential influencing factors. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, unforeseen events, or simply the collective intuition of traders. It's important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion about the potential direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by individual traders reacting to news, data releases, and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by comparing the gold price at 3:30AM-3:45AM ET on October 30 to its price immediately before that window. If the price is higher, the 'Up' outcome prevails; if it is lower, the 'Down' outcome prevails. The final result will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources and will be verified by the platform.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from central banks, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political shifts, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could impact the price and, consequently, the odds in this market.