TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$75

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $75. The total volume traded in this market is $75. This allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves and gauge the overall sentiment surrounding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term projections based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very short-term price movement. It's common to see discrepancies, as this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. Do analysts predict gold will rise or fall in the specified timeframe? Comparing their views to the probabilities reflected in this market can offer a valuable, contrasting viewpoint on the potential for price volatility.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'Gold Up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the gold price change between 2:00 PM and 2:15 PM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 2:15 PM ET than at 2:00 PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. The final determination will rely on widely available financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price movements. Any surprising announcements or events in the financial markets during the specified timeframe could lead to substantial shifts in this market.