TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$374

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, offering insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $359, and the total volume traded to date, which is $374. This allows you to gauge the level of interest and activity in this particular market.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and directional predictions for gold, this market represents a real-money view, where participants put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and those expressed in polls or by financial news outlets can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. It’s a fascinating way to see if the crowd’s assessment differs from expert opinions regarding the short-term gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 2:15 AM ET than at 2:00 AM ET, the ‘Gold Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Gold Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence the gold price movement market. Major economic data releases scheduled before October 30th, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could trigger shifts in investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or escalating international tensions, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or other central banks could impact the market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-holding nations or large institutional investors could also contribute to price volatility.