TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$45

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$21
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $45, and the total volume traded to date, which is $45. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is regularly updated to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by this market. These differences can stem from varying methodologies, access to information, or simply differing interpretations of economic indicators. Examining both viewpoints can offer a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – between 2:45 AM and 3:00 AM Eastern Time on October 30th. A definitive increase or decrease in the gold price during this period will determine the winning outcome. The market will then settle based on this verified change, providing a clear and objective result.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major news related to gold mining production, currency fluctuations (particularly the US dollar), and overall market risk sentiment could all influence trading activity in this market.