TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$93

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$201
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $93, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which is $93. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold before Oct 30, 2026. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market's participants may be pricing in other factors, such as potential interest rate hikes or a strengthening dollar. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of traders in this market, offering a unique insight into potential outcomes. This divergence can be valuable when forming your own informed opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, and it’s constantly adjusting as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing allows for a fluid and responsive market.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 2:30PM-2:45PM ET window on October 30th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The final price movement will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often trigger substantial price movements in gold. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, also tend to drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a considerable effect. Any surprising news related to these areas could lead to significant shifts in the odds within this market.