TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$368

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$176
$368
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 2:15AM and 2:30AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $312, and the total volume traded to date, which is $368. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. The question of whether prediction markets outperform expert opinions is a subject of ongoing debate, but they offer a unique and valuable data point.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official gold price during the 2:15AM-2:30AM ET window on October 30th. If the price is higher than its value at 2:15AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive significant movements. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could affect investor sentiment towards gold. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also play a role in shifting the odds.