TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$250

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $249, and the total volume traded to date, which is $250. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. This can lead to divergences, particularly when unexpected events or shifts in sentiment occur. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are fully reflected in analyst reports, as traders react quickly to new information and adjust their positions accordingly. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time assessment of probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information, economic indicators, and geopolitical events. This dynamic process ensures that the market price reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET on October 30th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The precise price change will be verified against trusted financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, can influence the price of gold. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investment decisions could also cause notable fluctuations.