TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,440

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$814
$2,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $2,408, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,440. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the market’s resolution date. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. This market provides a unique, data-driven view, independent of individual expert opinions, and can sometimes offer an early signal of shifts in market sentiment not yet reflected in mainstream analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing allows for a highly responsive and efficient market for forecasting the direction of gold.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 1:45PM-2:00PM ET window on October 30th. Whether the price is higher or lower than its starting point at 1:45PM ET will determine the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data and verified to ensure accuracy and transparency, providing a clear and objective result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or political instability, also tend to drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policies are another key catalyst. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could all contribute to price movements and, consequently, shifts in the odds within this market.