TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$219,029,434

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

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4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$256

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$49
$256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $255. This allows participants to gauge market interest and observe how predictions evolve as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective forecast for whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. Total volume for this market is $256.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. It's common to see discrepancies, with the market sometimes anticipating outcomes differently than expert opinions. For example, if analysts are largely bearish on gold, but volume in this market suggests increasing bullish sentiment, it could indicate a divergence in expectations. This market provides a forward-looking assessment based on collective belief.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of the gold price moving up or down. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Predict, representing the collective intelligence of its users. This differs from static polls or expert opinions.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 AM and 2:00 AM Eastern Time on October 30, 2026. If the price increases during that period, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The specific price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, can also influence the price. Furthermore, significant changes in investor sentiment, driven by news or market trends, could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity within this market.