TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$337

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by October 30th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $336. The total volume traded to date is $337. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions on gold’s performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may rely on specific models or have inherent biases, whereas this market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. Comparing this market to those forecasts can offer a valuable, alternative view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds are determined solely by user activity on Predict and aren’t influenced by external factors or pre-defined probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 1:45 PM ET than at 1:30 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could also trigger price movements. Finally, any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could move this market.