TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$459

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $456, and the total volume traded to date, which is $459. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the event. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick snapshot of the market’s activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer bullish or bearish outlooks based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unexpected developments. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator, distinct from retrospective analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the resulting price movements reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants. The current implied probability of either outcome is visible on the market dashboard, providing a clear indication of where the crowd stands.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on October 30th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Central bank decisions regarding interest rates and monetary policy are another key catalyst. Finally, significant shifts in investor sentiment, potentially triggered by major news headlines or market trends, could lead to substantial movements in the odds within this market.