TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$74

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $73, and the total volume traded to date, which is $74. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of an upward or downward price swing.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold's future performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked factors or anticipating shifts in market sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analysis. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 12:45AM-1:00AM ET on October 30th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The exact price source used for verification will be publicly available following resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite could influence investor behavior and, consequently, the odds in this market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries could also play a role.