TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 30?

Volume:
$666

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$57
$666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how they’ve shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $660, and the total volume traded to date, which is $666. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this short-term price prediction.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s predictions are based solely on the views of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how crowd wisdom differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can offer a more up-to-date and nuanced view than static analyst reports, as they continuously incorporate new information. However, it's also possible that analysts and traders may align in their expectations, reflecting a broad consensus on the likely outcome of the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd, providing a real-time assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 30th. If the price increases during that window, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also create volatility. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could drive traders to adjust their positions. Any significant shifts in market sentiment or unexpected news flow related to gold demand could also move this market substantially.