TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$685

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$406
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on October 30th. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a history of how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $680, and the total volume traded to date, which is $685. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment surrounding this short-term price fluctuation.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term projections based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very specific, short-term window. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders reacting to real-time information and their own assessments of near-term market forces. Do analysts anticipate a rise or fall in gold during this timeframe, and how does that compare to what traders are pricing in here?

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of a price increase, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 12:30PM than at 12:15PM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could move the market. Keep an eye on breaking financial news and global events leading up to Oct 30, 2026 as potential catalysts for price movement.