TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$190

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $177, and the total volume traded to date, which is $190. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price changes in gold, offering insights into market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on fundamental economic factors and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can react quickly to unexpected news or shifts in sentiment that analysts may not immediately account for. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is reflected in the price of the 'Up' contracts, while the 'Down' contracts represent the probability of a price decrease. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15 AM and 12:30 AM ET on October 30, 2026. If the price is higher at 12:30 AM ET than at 12:15 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in global currency exchange rates could also influence trading activity in this market.