TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,269

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$298
$1,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,241, and the total market volume, which is $1,269. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity, providing a real-time view of predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders reacting to a wider range of information, including news events, social sentiment, and even subtle market indicators. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than traditional forecasting methods. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants, and the market is highly liquid, allowing traders to enter and exit positions easily. The market's pricing is dynamic and responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on October 30th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be correct. The precise price change will be verified against widely recognized financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries could influence trading activity in this market.