TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$533

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3
$533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded—currently $533—and the 24-hour volume, which is $520. The dashboard also displays a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving you a sense of market sentiment. This allows you to quickly assess the prevailing expectations for gold’s performance.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in short-term predictions where unexpected events can have a significant impact. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the market’s collective assessment of risk and opportunity, offering a potentially more nuanced view than single-source predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and the market adjusts rapidly to new information. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds closely align with the perceived likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:15 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 11:30 AM ET than at 11:15 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Changes in interest rate expectations, driven by central bank communications, can also impact the gold price. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could trigger substantial price movements.