TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,306

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$145
$1,306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45AM and 11:00AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $1,290, and the total volume is $1,306. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While a recent survey of financial analysts indicated a 60% probability of gold remaining stable, this market currently reflects a more volatile expectation. It’s important to remember that analysts base their predictions on models and fundamental analysis, while prediction market participants incorporate a wider range of information, including sentiment and potential unforeseen events. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets in capturing a diverse range of perspectives.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the higher the price of a 'Gold Up' contract, the greater the perceived chance of an increase. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of information and a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 10:45 AM ET and 11:00 AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 11:00 AM ET than at 10:45 AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could influence market sentiment. Finally, large institutional trades or unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries could also cause significant price fluctuations and shift the probabilities within this market.