TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$846

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4
$846
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 30. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $846, with $827 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when there’s significant uncertainty or disagreement about future events. This market provides a unique 'wisdom of the crowd' view, distinct from the opinions of individual experts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price moving in a specific direction during the specified timeframe. Higher prices suggest a stronger belief in that outcome, while lower prices indicate less confidence.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 30. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win. If the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. A stable price will be assessed based on publicly available data and reported accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like international conflicts or trade tensions, also tend to drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Shifts in investor sentiment and currency fluctuations are additional signals to watch that could move this market.