TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$89

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$89
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $89. The 24-hour volume is $87, indicating recent trading activity. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s changing leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unforeseen circumstances, unlike more static analyst reports. This difference highlights the unique value of using prediction markets as a complementary source of insight.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to reflect the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:45 PM ET and 10:00 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the ‘down’ outcome will be correct. The precise price change will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations by the Federal Reserve could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant central bank activity would also be a key catalyst.