TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$3,093

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$276
$3,093
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market—currently $3,093—and the 24-hour volume, which is $3,096. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and where the sentiment lies leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. It’s common to see discrepancies, as market participants weigh factors differently or have access to unique information. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes than relying on a single source of information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds constantly adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their perspectives, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 9:45 AM to 10:00 AM ET window on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; if it decreases or remains flat, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade negotiations, can also create volatility. Furthermore, major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, tend to influence investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Any surprise announcements or shifts in these areas could lead to substantial changes in the odds.