TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$135

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30PM and 9:45PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $134. The total volume for this market is $135, indicating the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental economic data and technical analysis, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders who consider a wider range of factors, including news events, geopolitical risks, and even sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and incorporate diverse viewpoints, offering a unique signal compared to standard expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the combined assessment of all participants, making it a dynamic and real-time gauge of expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, influencing the odds as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30PM and 9:45PM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 9:45PM ET than at 9:30PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major gold-producing regions or shifts in global trade policies, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, major news related to central bank gold reserves or significant purchases/sales by large institutional investors could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market.