TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,310

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$2,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $2,310, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,310. This information allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and geopolitical factors, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. This can lead to divergences, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or where conventional wisdom may be flawed. It’s common to see this market anticipate outcomes that differ from the consensus view expressed in polls or by financial news outlets, offering a unique signal about potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely track the evolving sentiment of market participants, providing a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or surprise political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market. Major currency fluctuations and shifts in global risk appetite are also key factors to watch.