TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$3,190

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$6
$3,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,170, and the total market volume, which is $3,190. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will actually happen. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty. This market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities, potentially offering insights beyond those found in standard financial analysis and polling data.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any surprise announcements from major central banks could all contribute to price volatility and move this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in trader expectations.