TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$204

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8PM-8:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$140
$204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8PM and 8:15PM ET on October 29th. You'll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $200. The total volume for this market is $204, indicating the overall interest in this short-term price prediction. This information helps you assess the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide long-term projections for gold, this market focuses on a very specific 15-minute window. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may consider broader economic factors while traders in this market are reacting to more immediate signals and short-term momentum. The question is whether the collective intelligence of traders can more accurately predict this narrow price movement than expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates what percentage of traders believe gold will rise, with the remaining percentage believing it will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM Eastern Time on October 29th. If the price is higher at 8:15 PM than it was at 8:00 PM, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized gold price index.

Several factors could significantly influence the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could trigger shifts in investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise announcements, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Even comments from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could impact the market. Any news that affects the perceived risk appetite of investors or the strength of the US dollar has the potential to move this market considerably before Oct 30, 2026.