TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

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$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

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events

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4,526

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by Oct 29?

Volume:
$1,191

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$1,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll see the odds reflecting what traders believe will happen, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,182, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,191. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's important to note that the prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds can differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on economic models and fundamental analysis. While analysts may predict a specific direction for gold prices, this market allows for a more dynamic and real-time assessment of probabilities as new information emerges. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets reflect not just *what* might happen, but *how likely* traders believe it is.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 8:15 AM than at 8:00 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any surprise announcements related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could also move the market.