TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$160

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$175
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour volume, currently at $153. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s evolving. The total volume traded on this market is $160, providing a sense of overall interest. The dashboard is updated in real-time as new trades come in.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unforeseen events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. This market provides a real-time, quantifiable measure of belief about the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing allows for efficient discovery of market sentiment regarding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15 PM ET and 8:30 PM ET on October 29th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence investor sentiment. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could also trigger price movements in this market.