TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$191

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market as it evolves. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $190, and the total volume traded to date, which is $191. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment surrounding the potential movement of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential influences. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unforeseen circumstances. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict and indicates the likelihood of the outcome as perceived by the market. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will climb.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29th. A rise in price will favor the 'up' outcome, while a decline will favor the 'down' outcome. The exact price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and impartial determination of the market's result.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade negotiations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rates or currency fluctuations could influence the market. Any major news affecting the global economic outlook or risk appetite is likely to create volatility and shift the odds in this market.