TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$648

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $649, and the total volume traded to date, which is $648. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding potential gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold price predictions, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the likely direction of gold prices. This can be especially true when considering short-term movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the likely outcome. This creates a real-time reflection of market sentiment regarding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 AM and 7:30 AM ET on October 29th. A verified increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The exact price source used for verification will be publicly available after resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can create volatility in the gold market. Any surprise announcements or shifts in global economic conditions are likely to move this market.