TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$101

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$178
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on October 29th. You can view the current odds, historical price action of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $101. The total volume for this market is $101, providing insight into overall trader interest. This information is updated in real-time as traders buy and sell contracts reflecting their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, access to unique information, or simply the dynamic nature of market sentiment. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assessment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the 'gold up' outcome, with the 'gold down' outcome being the inverse. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on October 29th. If the price increases during that period, the 'gold up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'gold down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness are also key factors to watch, as gold is typically priced in dollars.