TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$673

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$165
$673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $668, and the total volume traded to date, which is $673. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the market’s resolution. The dashboard is designed to give you a clear understanding of market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, this market presents a more nuanced view based on the collective wisdom of traders. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the implied probabilities within this market, as traders weigh a broader range of factors and potential outcomes. This divergence can offer valuable insights beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price is entirely determined by the traders themselves, reflecting their aggregated assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. There are no external factors directly influencing the pricing mechanism within Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 6:45PM-7:00PM ET on October 29th. A verified price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease or no change will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price movement will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising statements from central banks regarding monetary policy could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or major changes in global risk appetite are also key factors to watch.